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#Brexit black hole: Divorce implosion, deal, or election? : EU Reporter China

#Brexit black hole:离婚内幕,交易还是选举?

| 15-2019-XNUMX | 0评论

By 游客贡献者

英国现在要到31十月离开欧盟,但英国政治精英仍在争论如何,何时或是否到英国退欧, 写一个 Guy Faulconbridge,一个 凯莉麦克利伦Â和 安德鲁MacAskill.

Some EU officials think the United Kingdom could change its mind – a spectacular reversal that would illustrate the bloc’s fortitude and keep one of Europe’s top powers inside the club.

英国退欧的欧洲怀疑论支持者表示,离婚受到了他们所谓的不民主阴谋的威胁,这种阴谋可能会破坏英国的政治稳定。

以下是可能的情况:

1) NO BREXIT: The fresh delay gives time for the opponents of the divorce to push for a revocation of the formal Article 50 divorce notification, or for a referendum – either via parliament or an election.

在2016投票支持欧盟的总理特里萨梅一再排除撤销或其他公投。 但是,如果她被推翻,继任者可能会试图召集选举。

The outcome of any election is uncertain and while both main parties’ manifestos support Brexit, the opposition Labour Party backs a “confirmatory referendum� on any deal.

工党领袖杰里米·科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)投票反对1975的成员资格,并且只是不情愿地支持2016继续留在欧盟的运动,这标志着对另一次公投的冷淡支持。 不过,他的政党显然想要一个。

May’s finance minister, Philip Hammond, said on Friday (12 April) it was very likely that the idea of a second Brexit referendum would again be put to parliament at some point, though the government remained opposed to any new plebiscite.

Parliament has been in deadlock over the terms of Brexit, having rejected May’s withdrawal plan three times since January.

在过去一个月里,立法者两次就旨在打破僵局的各种英国脱欧选项进行了一系列投票,第二次公投是最受欢迎的选择,尽管没有达到多数。

On 1 April, a proposal for another referendum drew the support of 280 lawmakers – 40 seats short of a majority. A week earlier, it had the backing of 268 lawmakers.

如果议会同意第二次公投,英国可能不得不要求在10月底之后延期,以便有足够的时间进行竞选活动。

然而在布鲁塞尔,这个想法并不令人愤慨。

根据欧盟官员和外交官的说法,取决于英国的发展情况,更多的延误都在发生。

Three of the four former British prime ministers still alive – John Major, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown – have said a referendum is the way to resolve the crisis.

The case for a second referendum could be enhanced if europhile candidates – mainly from centre-left parties – do well in the May 23-26 European Parliament elections.

To get another referendum, the British parliament would have to approve new legislation and settle on a question.     Britain’s electoral regulator would then ideally need six months to test the question with the public and then grant a period for the campaign to take place, a spokesman said.

英国脱欧的双方正在为另一次全民投票的可能性做准备。

目前还不清楚英国将如何投票,即使它确实投票保留,英国退欧支持者也会要求进行第三次和决定性的投票。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)在没有英国退欧(Brexit)的情况下提出40%概率。

2)她的王国进行交易:可能仍然希望议会将批准她在11月份与欧盟达成的协议,尽管此后该议会已经在议会中一再遭受重大失败。 关于议会最近投票的图表, 请看这里。

如果她的交易得到批准,梅可能会承诺辞职,但这既不会让欧洲怀疑论者也不会让支持欧盟的反对者支持她,所以她现在警告英国退欧可能永远不会发生。

如果与工党的谈判最终崩溃,梅说,她将接受议会关于下一步该做什么的意愿。

Votes in the fractious House of Commons have shown that none of the alternatives to May’s agreement – such as leaving with no deal, a referendum or a much closer post-Brexit economic relationship – can yet muster a majority.

One option that could win over Labour lawmakers is to have a post-Brexit customs union with the EU and to align with many of the rules of the bloc’s single market.

Brexiteers和许多成员的支持者都说这样的选择是愚蠢的,因为它会使英国对它必须遵守的规则没有发言权。

欧盟很乐意这样做,并且可以快速完成。

Such a deal, Brexiteers say, would be “Brexit In Name Only�.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)批准修改后的交易的概率为50%。

3) ELECTION: May’s deal fails again, parliament cannot agree on what to do and May, or a successor, calls an election.

Britain’s next national election is not due to be held until 2022, but there are two ways an earlier vote can be called:

a) Two-thirds of parliament’s 650 lawmakers vote in favour of holding an election.

b)如果简单多数立法者通过了对政府不信任的动议,并且任何一方都无法在下一个14日赢得下议院的信任,那么就会引发选举。

4)没有交易:伦敦的混乱局面恶化,强硬派,英国脱欧支持的领导者最终会进入无交易退出市场。

This is the nightmare scenario for many businesses. By stripping the world’s fifth largest economy of its complex foreign trade relationships at one stroke, it would spook financial markets and dislocate supply chains across Europe and beyond. The political and social impact is unclear.

无交易意味着没有过渡,因此退出将是突然的。 英国是世界贸易组织的成员国,因此关税和其与欧盟贸易的其他条款将仅根据世贸组织规则制定。

高盛在无交易退出时的概率为10%。

资源:: 欧盟记者饲料

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